WORKPAPERS AND CALCULATIONS FOR ADOPTED SAVINGS GOALS

Statewide Total Electricity and Natural Gas Program Savings
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total Annual Electricity Savings (GWH/yr) (1)	1,838	1,838	2,032	2,275	2,505	2,538	2,465	2,513	2,547	2,631
Total Cumulative Savings (GWH/yr)	1,838	3,677	5,709	7,984	10,489	13,027	15,492	18,005	20,552	23,183
Total Peak Savings (MW) (2)	379	757	1,199	1,677	2,205	2,740	3,259	3,789	4,328	4,885
Total Annual Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)	21	21	30	37	44	52	54	57	61	67
Total Cumulative Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)	21	42	72	110	154	206	260	316	377	444

Notes:

(1) Total annual energy savings = all savings from energy efficiency programs funded by public goods charge and Procurement funding.

This total includes savings from baseline Energy efficiency program funding of $100 MM/yr accounted for in the CEC sales forecast.

For incremental program savings above the levels included in the CEC forecast, see attached workpapers.

(2) Average peak MW estimated by multiplying GWh from utility by the ratio they used in 2004/5 filings ranges from .19 to .21.

This is an estimate of average peak savings not coincident peak = GWh savings in peak period/560 hours in period.

2013 goal as a % Xenergy estimate of maximum achievable = 90.9%

Staff 2013 goal as a % of Xenergy estimate of economic potential = 67.9%

Econ potential for 3 IOUs (GWH/yr) = 34,133

Max achievable potential for 3 IOUs (GWH/yr) = 25,490

			PG&E Electricity Program Savings - Total and Incremental
			2004	2005		2006		2007		2008		2009		2010		2011		2012	2013
Funding-$ millions			152.0	152.0		174.8		205.1		235.8		246.5		253.9		271.6		293.4	319.3
Effectiveness kWh/$			4.9	4.9		4.7		4.6		4.5		4.3		4.0		4.0		4.0	4.0
Total Annual Program Savings (GWH/Yr)			743.6	743.6		829.4		943.9		1,053.0		1,067.4		1,015.4		1,086.5		1,173.4	1,277.0
Cumulative Savings ( GWh/yr)			743.6	1,487.2		2,316.5		3,260.5		4,313.5		5,380.8		6,396.3		7,482.8		8,656.2	9,933.2
Baseline Program savings			408.0	408.0		408.0		408.0		408.0		408.0		408.0		408.0		408.0	408.0
Incremental 1st yr savings			335.6	335.6		421.4		535.9		645.0		659.4		607.4		678.5		765.4	869.0
Incr cumulative savings			164.0	499.6		921.0		1,456.9		2,101.9		2,761.3		3,368.7		4,047.2		4,812.6	5,681.6
Funding change % yr to yr			0.41	0.00		0.15		0.17		0.15		0.05		0.03		0.07		0.08	0.09
Inc Need from forecast						incre need = forecast for 2013 - forecast for 2014													12,663.0
															Fraction of need met by total program savings				58.7%	total/ need
Incremental= difference between Total Annual savings and baseline program savings						170.2									Fraction of need met by incremental savings				44.9%	incre/need
Baseline funding and savings associated are already in the CEC electricity forecast
PGE funding based on funding trajectories used in staff report on statewide basis and applied to PG&E base																			Total need w/o programs
																			16,914.6	GWH
																			4397.7819	MW

PG&E Total Electricity and Natural Gas Program Savings
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total Annual Electricity Savings (GWH/yr) (1)	744	744	829	944	1,053	1,067	1,015	1,086	1,173	1,277
Total Cumulative Savings (GWH/yr)	744	1,487	2,317	3,260	4,313	5,381	6,396	7,483	8,656	9,933	% of max achievable
Maximum Achievable per KemaXenergy	435	1,392	2,698	4,357	6,139	7,874	9,318	10,309	10,929	11,320	87.7%
Total Peak Savings (MW) (2)	161	323	503	708	936	1168	1388	1624	1878	2156	94.4%
Total Annual Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)	9.8	9.8	12.6	14.9	17.4	20.3	21.1	22.0	23.0	25.1
Total Cumulative Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)	9.8	19.6	32.1	47.0	64.4	84.8	105.9	127.8	150.9	176.0

Notes:
(1) Total annual energy savings = all savings from energy efficiency programs funded by public goods charge and Procurement funding. This total includes savings from baseline Energy efficiency program funding of $100 MM/yr accounted for in the CEC sales forecast.
For incremental program savings above the levels included in the CEC forecast see attached workpapers. (2) GWh Savings converted to MW by multiplying by .217, which is ratio of GWh to peak savings for 2004/5 applications This is an estimate of average peak savings not coincident peak = GWh savings in peak period/ # of hours in period = 560 hours

(3) 2004/2005 annual goals from Attachment 7 (divided by 2).

SCE Electricity Program Savings-Total and Incremental

				2004	2005	2006		2007	2008	2009		2010	2011			2012		2013
Funding-$ millions				140.80	140.80	161.92		189.45	217.86	228.76		233.33	238.00			242.76		247.61
Effectiveness (kWh/$ sp)				5.87	5.87	5.69		5.52	5.36	5.20		5.04	4.89			4.74		4.60
Annual Savings GWh				826.5	826.5	922.0		1046.3	1167.2	1188.8		1176.2	1163.7			1151.4		1139.2
Cumulative Savings				826.5	1653.0	2574.9		3621.3	4788.5	5977.2		7153.4	8317.1			9468.5		10607.6
Base savings				508.0	508.0	508.0		508.0	508.0	508.0		508.0	508.0			508.0		508.0
Inc first year savings				318.5	318.5	414.0		538.3	659.2	680.8		668.2	655.7			643.4		631.2
Inc cumulative				218.0	536.5	950.5		1488.8	2148.0	2828.7		3496.9	4152.6			4796.0		5427.1
												Incremental need 2004 to 2013 =						13355
												Fraction of need met by total program savings						57.2%			total/ need			18535.5					total need over forecast
												Fraction of need met by incrementral savings						40.6%			incre/need
yr to yr % chng in funding			60.4%		0.0%	15.0%		17.0%	15.0%	5.0%		2.0%		2.0%			2.0%	2.0%
2004/5Effectiveness average of 5.25 is based on projected program effectiveness. 4.75 is state average over last five years for ee programs
Inc = Program savings beyond base level of savings already in CEC forecast $90 million and 508 GWH/yr
Inc = Total annual savings - baseline savings in rows above																							16326.4

SCE Total Electricity Program Savings
			2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total Annual Electricity Savings GWH/yr			826	826	922	1,046	1,167	1,189	1,176	1,164	1,151	1,139
Total Cumulative Savings GWH/yr			826	1,653	2,575	3,621	4,788	5,977	7,153	8,317	9,468	10,608	goal as % of max achievable
KemaXenergy Max Achievable			468	1,494	2,878	4,612	6,480	8,305	9,830	10,873	11,526	11,939	88.8%
Total Peak Savings (MW)			167	334	541	760	1,006	1,255	1,502	1,747	1,988	2,228	99.1%
Notes: (1) Total savings = all savings from energy efficiency programs funded by public goods charge and Procurement funding.
This total includes savings from Energy efficiency programs already in the CEC forecast. For incremental savings above the levels
included in the CEC forecast, see attached workpapers. (2) GWh Savings converted to MW by multiplying by .21, average of utility GWh to peak savings for 2004/5 applications. This is an estimate of average peak savings not coincident peak = GWh savings in peak period/ # of hours in period. Peak period is 560 hours per summer - 12 to 7 per weekday and 20 days/month * four summer months. (3) 2004/05 annual goals from Attachment 7 (divided by 2).

SoCalGas Natural Gas Program Savings Goals
MM Therms/Year
				2004			2005		2006		2007		2008		2009			2010		2011		2012						2013
Total Annual Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)				9.6			9.6		14.7		19.3		23.3		27.2			28.3		29.9		32.3						35.8
Total Cumulative Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)				9.6			19.3		34.0		53.3		76.5		103.7			132.0		161.9		194.2						230.1
Notes:
Total savings = all savings from energy efficiency programs funded by public goods charge and Procurement funding.
This total includes natural gas savings from Energy efficiency programs already included in the CEC forecast.
These natural gas savings goals do not include any incidental gas savings caused by SCE's electricity programs.
These gas savings are reported by SCE for resource planning purposes.
2004/05 annual goals from Attachment 7 (divided by 2).

					SDG&E Electricity Program Savings-Total and Incremental
					2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009		2010		2011	2012	2013
		Funding-$ millions			55.00	55.00	60.50	64.74	67.97	71.03		72.45		73.18	73.91	75.4
		Effectiveness kWh/$			4.88	4.88	4.64	4.40	4.18	3.97		3.78		3.59	3.00	2.85
	Total Programs	Annual Savings-GWh			268.4	268.4	280.5	285.1	284.4	282.3		273.6		262.5	221.7	214.9
		Cumulative Savings			268.4	536.8	817.3	1102.4	1386.8	1669.1		1942.7		2205.2	2426.9	2641.8
	Base program	Annual Savings-GWh			141.7	141.7	141.7	141.7	141.7	141.7		141.7		141.7	141.7	141.7
	Inc Program	Annual Savings-GWh			126.7	126.7	138.8	143.4	142.7	140.6		131.9		120.8	80.0	73.2
	Inc Program	Cumulative Savings			126.7	253.4	392.2	535.6	678.3	818.9		950.8		1071.6	1151.6	1224.8
	Incremental need-2004 to 2013								incremental need 2013 to 2004 gwh							3419.0
													Fraction of need met by total program savings			54.6%	total/ need 4836.0 total need w/o ee programs
													Fraction of need met by incremental savings			35.8% incre/need
		yr to yr funding change			48.0%	0.0%	10.0%	7.0%	5.0%	4.5%			2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	2.0%
		Inc Program = total program savings less baseline savings (baseline impacts are already in the CEC forecast)
		2006 star value for Effectiveness in kWh/$ spent is the average effectiveness reported from 1998 to 2002 in the annual reports.

			SDG&E Total Electricity and Natural Gas Program Savings Goals
			2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total Annual Electricity Savings GWH/yr			268.4	268.4	280.5	285.1	284.4	282.3	273.6	262.5	221.7	214.9
Total Cumulative Savings GWH/yr			268.4	536.8	817.3	1,102.4	1,386.8	1,669.1	1,942.7	2,205.2	2,426.9	2,641.8	goal as % of max achievable
KemaXenergy-Max Achievable GWH/yr			95	306	591	946	1,306	1,629	1,870	2,042	2,156	2,231	118.4%
Total Peak Savings (MW)			50.4	100.7	155.3	209.5	263.5	317.1	369.1	419.0	461.1	501.9	117.8%
Total Annual Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)			1.8	1.8	2.7	3.1	3.7	4.1	4.5	4.9	5.3	5.7
Total Cumulative Natural Gas Savings (MMTh/yr)			1.8	3.6	6.3	9.5	13.1	17.3	21.8	26.7	32.0	37.6
Notes: (1) Total savings = all savings from energy efficiency programs funded by public goods charge and Procurement funding.
This total includes savings from Energy efficiency programs already in the CEC forecast. For incremental savings above the levels included in the CEC forecast, see attached workpapers.
(2) MW savings derived by multiplying GWh Savings by .19, average value SDG&E GWh to peak savings for 2004/5 applications.
This is an estimate of average peak savings during all the peak hours; = GWh savings in peak period/ # of hours in period.

(3) 2004/05 annual goals are from Attachment 7 (divided by 2).

Statewide Summary of Natural Gas Savings Goals for PG&E, SoCalGas and SDG&E Service Territories
	Annual Ngas Savings	Total Funding
Year	MM therm/yr	$ millions
2004	21.2	58.6
2005	21.2	58.6
2006	30.0	78.3
2007	37.3	98.5
2008	44.4	118.2
2009	51.6	139.1
2010	53.9	146.6
2011	56.8	156.1
2012	60.6	168.3			IOU cum natural gas savings in 2013
2013	66.6	186.6		SCG	SDG&E	PG&E	total
Total	443.7	1209.0		230	37.7	175.95	444
			Util as a % of statewide total	51.85%	8.49%	39.66%
max achievable	1057
2013 Goal/ Max Achievable %	41.97%
For methodology used for savings projections: CEC Staff Report
Proposed Natural Gas Savings Goals for Investor Owned Utilities
Mar-04

Individual IOU Funding Levels and Savings Goals
	SoCalGas		PG&E		SDG&E
Year	Annual Funding	Annual Nat Gas Savings	Annual Funding	Annual Nat Gas Savings	Annual Funding	Annual Nat Gas Savings
	$ millions/yr	M Th/yr	$ millions/yr	M Th/Yr	$ millions/yr	M Th/yr
2004	27.5	9.6	25.2	9.8	5.9	1.8
2005	27.5	9.6	25.2	9.8	5.9	1.8
2006	38.5	14.7	32.8	12.6	7.1	2.7
2007	50.8	19.3	39.3	14.9	8.4	3.1
2008	62.0	23.3	46.4	17.4	9.9	3.7
2009	73.2	27.2	54.7	20.3	11.2	4.1
2010	76.8	28.3	57.4	21.1	12.4	4.5
2011	82.2	29.9	60.3	22.0	13.6	4.9
2012	89.6	32.3	63.9	23.0	14.8	5.3
2013	100.3	35.8	70.3	25.1	16.0	5.7
Total	628.4	230.1	475.4	175.9	105.1	37.7

	Derivation of Natural Gas Savings Goals for SoCalGas
	SoCalGas Goals			Program
	Funding $ million	Annual Savings	Cumulative Savings	Effectiveness	Source
	$ million	MM therms	MM therms	therms/ $ million
2004	$ 27.5	9.6	9.6	350.0	taken from goals filing
2005	$ 27.5	9.6	19.3	350.0	taken from goals filing
2006	$ 38.5	14.7	34.0	383.0	Five-year average degraded at 1%/yr from 2003
2007	$ 50.8	19.3	53.3	379.2	effectiveness drops 1%/year from 2007 onward
2008	$ 62.0	23.3	76.5	375.4
2009	$ 73.2	27.2	103.7	371.6
2010	$ 76.8	28.3	132.0	367.9
2011	$ 82.2	29.9	161.9	364.2
2012	$ 89.6	32.3	194.2	360.6
2013	$ 100.3	35.8	230.1	357.0
10 Year Totals-2004-2013	$ 628.4	230.05
3-yr goal-2004-06 cumulative	$ 93.5	34.00
5-year goal 2004-2009 cumulative	$ 279.5	103.73
10-year goal-2004-2013 cumulative	$ 628.4	230.05	Goal as % of Xen est
Compared to
Xenergy Estimate of Econ Potential for SoCalGas		457.08	50.33%
Xenergy Estimate of Max Achievable Potential		320.88	71.69%
	2004 is base	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010		2011	2012				2013
Projected funding increases	0	0.0%	40.0%	32.0%	22.0%	18.0%	5.0%		7.0%	9.0%				12.0%
relative to 2003 base
Percentage funding increase 2004 vs 2013			264.9%

Notes:
SoCalGas' cumulative goal (230 MW) is approximately 52% of total savings, or proportional to SoCalGas' share of natural gas sales, which are estimated at (less gas used as a feedstock) roughly 52% of 2003 statewide sales. (Source: CEC 2002 Natural Gas Forecast) The analysis uses a 1% degradation, year over year, in the assumed effectiveness of programs post 2006.

	Derivation of Natural Gas Savings Goals for SDG&E
	SDG&E
	Funding $ million	Annual Savings			Cumulative Savings	Effectiveness
	$ million	MM therms			MM therms	M therms/ $ million
2004	$ 5.9	1.8			1.8	312
2005	$ 5.9	1.8			3.6	312.0
2006	$ 7.1	2.7			6.3	379.3
2007	$ 8.4	3.1			9.5	375.5
2008	$ 9.9	3.7			13.1	371.8
2009	$ 11.2	4.1			17.3	368.0
2010	$ 12.4	4.5			21.8	364.4
2011	$ 13.6	4.9			26.7	360.7
2012	$ 14.8	5.3			32.0	357.1
2013	$ 16.0	5.7			37.6	353.5
10-Year Totals - 2004-2013	$ 105.1	$ 37.7
3-yr goal-2004-06 cumulative	$ 18.9	$ 6.4
5-year goal 2004-2009 cumulative	$ 48.3	$ 17.3
10-year goal-2004-2013 cumulative	$ 105.1	$ 37.7
Xenergy Estimate of Econ Potential	135.32	27.84%
Xenergy Estimate of Max Achievable	89.845	41.92%
	note 2003 spending was $3.89 million
			2005	2006		2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Projected funding increases			0.0%	20.0%		17.5%	18.0%	17.9%	15.0%	10.0%	10.0%	9.0%	8.8%
Relative to 2003				17.5%
				18.0%
				14.0%
				10.0%
				10.0%
				9.0%
				8.0%
Percentage funding increase 2004 vs 2013			171.3%
Notes:
This analysis utilizes a 1% Degradation Factor when calculating the effectiveness of program
savings beginning in 2006 with statewide value of 375 therms/ million.

Derivation of Natural Gas Savings Goals for PG&E
	PG&E goals
	Funding $ million	Annual Savings	Cumulative Savings	Projected Effectiveness
	$ million	MM therms	MM therms	Mtherms saved/ $ million program spent
2004	$ 25.2	9.8	9.8	387
2005	$ 25.2	9.8	20	387.0
2006	$ 32.8	12.6	32	383.1
2007	$ 39.3	14.9	47	379.3
2008	$ 46.4	17.4	64	375.5
2009	$ 54.7	20.3	85	371.8
2010	$ 57.4	21.1	106	368.0
2011	$ 60.3	22.0	128	364.4
2012	$ 63.9	23.0	151	360.7
2013	$ 70.3	25.1	176	357.1
Xenergy Estimate of Econ Potential	628.84	27.98%
Xenergy Estimate of Max Achievable	417.515	42.14%
10-Year Totals - 2004-2013	$ 475.4	175.95
3-yr goal - 2004-06 cumulative	$ 83.2	32.06
5-year goal - 2004-2009 cumulative	$ 223.5	84.71
10-year goal - 2004-2013 cumulative	$ 475.4	175.95
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Projected funding increases	0.0%	0.0%	30.0%	20.0%	18.0%	17.9%	5.0%	5.0%	6.0%	10.0%	8.8%
								\
Annual funding increase - 2004 vs 2013			178.9%
Notes:
PGE share of Natural gas sales in 2003 = 40% and PGE share of 2013 statewide goals is 39.6% (Source: CEC 2002 Natural Gas Forecast)
The analysis uses n a 1% degradation, year over year, in the assumed effectiveness of programs post 2006.

(END OF ATTACHMENT 9)