PROBLEMS

The 2,107MW of internal generation serving SDG&E can only meet less than half its projected load for 2001. The original load forecast for 2001 (using 90/10 probability) was 4,492MW. This forecast has been revised down by 236MW to 4,256MW due to the high electricity price last summer and expected this coming summer. The original annual growth rate is forecasted at 3% through 2005. SDG&E will revise this growth rate taking into consideration of retail rate cap and rate recovery after the cap period ends.

SDG&E's transmission system is burdened to import all the power needs above its internal generation resources. The combined SWPL and South of SONGS import capability currently stands at 2,750MW, which in combination with 2,107MW of internal generation, is capable of meeting the 4,256MW of load at 2001 peak. However, WSCC and ISO planning criteria call for enough transmission capability in overlapping contingencies of one generator and one transmission element, in this case, Encina 5 generation unit plus SWPL outages. The import capability falls short of 29MW to meet projected 2001 load.