Demand and Supply Forecasts

SDG&E based its LTPP on the California Energy Commission's load forecast, which projects SDG&E's customer growth at a rate of roughly 1.2% annually over the next 10 years, while load growth is forecasted to grow at approximately 1.5% annually. In addition, SDG&E developed a high and low forecast for demonstrating how SDG&E's procurement needs will change should SDG&E's bundled load change as compared to the base case. The development of SDG&E's high and low cases incorporates potential changes in overall demand, direct access loads, and community choice aggregation (CCA). SDG&E's high case assumes a 1% to 2% additional load growth rate in the first three years of the forecast horizon, followed by a 0.25% to 0.50% growth adder thereafter. SDG&E's low case assumes more moderate reductions to overall load in the forecast horizon and uses rates that are half of the high case.

Regarding the supply forecast, the LTPP was developed based on a variety of assumptions regarding existing and planned resources, including existing and committed energy efficiency and demand response programs, existing distributed generation, QFs, existing contracts, including those from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), the Otay Mesa Power Plant (expected to be on-line in 2009), and SDG&E-owned plants (Miramar I, Palomar, and SDG&E's share of SONGS).