Lost Sales (MWh/yr)

       

 

 

To

To

 

   

Lost Sales

Trend Line

Year

 

Modesto ID

Merced ID

Total

   

(MWh)

(MWh)

1996

 

1,657

33,059

34,717

 

1996

34,717

20,962

1997

 

37,000

65,581

102,581

 

1997

102,581

93,833

1998

 

70,867

76,342

147,209

 

1998

147,209

166,705

1999

 

97,130

100,176

197,306

 

1999

197,306

239,577

2000

 

114,526

205,213

319,739

 

2000

351,713

312,449

5-yr Total

 

321,181

480,371

801,552

 

2001

 

385,321

           

2002

 

458,192

           

2003

 

531,064

Addl EOY 2000

 

10%

10%

   

2004

 

603,936

2000 (Adj.)

 

125,979

225,734

351,713

 

2005

 

676,808

                 

5-yr Total (Adj.)

 

332,634

500,893

833,526

 

Intercept

-145,431,072

 
           

Slope

72,872

 
                 
                 

Note: Lost customers in 2000 are as of 4/15/00. Lost sales in 2000 are limited to already departed customers projected

 

over the remainder of the year, and will be higher if more customers are lost. "2000 Adj" includes estimated lost

   

sales in 2000 from customers departing after 4/15/00.

         
                 
                 

Cumulative

 

Modesto &

Laguna ID

SSJID

Other ID

Total ID

   

Bypass Ests.

 

Merced Ids

Condemnation

Condemnation

Bypass

Bypass

   

By Year (MWh)

 

(MWh)

(MWh)

(MWh)

(MWh)

(MWh)

   

2000

 

351,713

0

0

0

351,713

   

2001

 

385,321

0

21,179

0

406,500

   

2002

 

458,192

34,885

21,391

0

514,468

   

2003

 

531,064

35,583

21,605

0

588,252

   

2004

 

603,936

36,295

21,821

0

662,052

   

2005

 

676,808

37,021

22,039

0

735,868

   
                 
       

1.0%

       

Appendix 3

PG&E's Estimated Lost Customers and Sales

Due to Customer Bypass to Municipalization

Bypass during 1991-2000 period--annexations

100,800

             

by existing munis (MWh)

               
                 

Estd. additional bypass during 2001-2005 period--annexations

20,500

             

by existing munis (MWh)

               
                 

Estd. additional bypass per year during 2001-2005 period--annexations

4,100

             

by existing munis (MWh)

               
                 

Potential bypass from new muni/ID formation, 2001-2005 (MWh)

               

Brentwood

250,000

             

Davis

380,000,000

             

Laguna ID

               
                 
                 

 

Existing Muni

Potential Condemnations

Estimated

Condemnation

Total Muni

 

Annexations

Brentwood

Davis

San Francisco

Total

Probability of

Expected Value

Bypass Estimate

Cumulative Bypass Estimates by Year

(MWh)

(MWh)

(MWh)

(MWh)

(MWh)

Success

(MWh)

Success

2000

100,800

     

0

 

0

100,800

2001

104,900

     

0

 

0

104,900

2002

109,000

250

380,000

0

380,250

10%

38,025

147,025

2003

113,100

260

383,800

0

384,060

10%

38,406

151,506

2004

117,200

270

387,638

0

387,908

10%

38,791

155,991

2005

121,300

281

391,514

0

391,796

10%

39,180

160,480

                 
                 
 

Growth rate =>

4.0%

1.0%

2.0%

       

(END OF APPENDIX 3)

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