Type of Bypass |
PG&E Bypass Forecast Through 2000 (MWh) |
PG&E Bypass Forecast Through 2001 (MWh)y |
PG&E Bypass Forecast Through 2002 (MWh) |
PG&E Bypass Forecast Through 2003 (MWh) |
PG&E Bypass Forecast Through 2004 (MWh) |
Traditional Self-Gen |
6,285,655 |
6,289,855 |
6,296,855 |
6,303,855 |
6,310,855 |
Over-the-Fence |
115,226 |
555,414 |
555,414 |
555,414 |
555,414 |
Irrigation Districts |
351,713 |
406,500 |
514,468 |
588,252 |
662,052 |
Municipalization |
100,800 |
104,900 |
147,025 |
151,506 |
155,991 |
Ag Engines |
188,000 |
190,400 |
192,800 |
195,200 |
197,600 |
Total |
7,041,394 |
7,547,069 |
7,706,562 |
7,794,227 |
7,881,912 |
(END OF APPENDIX 1)
Appendix 2
PG&E's Estimated Lost Customers and Sales Due to Customer Bypass to Irrigation Districts
1996-2000
|
Lost Sales (MWh/yr) |
|||||||
|
To |
To |
|
Lost Sales |
Trend Line | |||
Year |
Modesto ID |
Merced ID |
Total |
(MWh) |
(MWh) | |||
1996 |
1,657 |
33,059 |
34,717 |
1996 |
34,717 |
20,962 | ||
1997 |
37,000 |
65,581 |
102,581 |
1997 |
102,581 |
93,833 | ||
1998 |
70,867 |
76,342 |
147,209 |
1998 |
147,209 |
166,705 | ||
1999 |
97,130 |
100,176 |
197,306 |
1999 |
197,306 |
239,577 | ||
2000 |
114,526 |
205,213 |
319,739 |
2000 |
351,713 |
312,449 | ||
5-yr Total |
321,181 |
480,371 |
801,552 |
2001 |
385,321 | |||
2002 |
458,192 | |||||||
2003 |
531,064 | |||||||
Addl EOY 2000 |
10% |
10% |
2004 |
603,936 | ||||
2000 (Adj.) |
125,979 |
225,734 |
351,713 |
2005 |
676,808 | |||
5-yr Total (Adj.) |
332,634 |
500,893 |
833,526 |
Intercept |
-145,431,072 |
|||
Slope |
72,872 |
|||||||
Note: Lost customers in 2000 are as of 4/15/00. Lost sales in 2000 are limited to already departed customers projected |
||||||||
over the remainder of the year, and will be higher if more customers are lost. "2000 Adj" includes estimated lost |
||||||||
sales in 2000 from customers departing after 4/15/00. |
||||||||
Cumulative |
Modesto & |
Laguna ID |
SSJID |
Other ID |
Total ID |
|||
Bypass Ests. |
Merced Ids |
Condemnation |
Condemnation |
Bypass |
Bypass |
|||
By Year (MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
|||
2000 |
351,713 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
351,713 |
|||
2001 |
385,321 |
0 |
21,179 |
0 |
406,500 |
|||
2002 |
458,192 |
34,885 |
21,391 |
0 |
514,468 |
|||
2003 |
531,064 |
35,583 |
21,605 |
0 |
588,252 |
|||
2004 |
603,936 |
36,295 |
21,821 |
0 |
662,052 |
|||
2005 |
676,808 |
37,021 |
22,039 |
0 |
735,868 |
|||
1.0% |
(END OF APPENDIX 2)
Appendix 3
PG&E's Estimated Lost Customers and Sales
Due to Customer Bypass to Municipalization
Bypass during 1991-2000 period--annexations |
100,800 |
|||||||
by existing munis (MWh) |
||||||||
Estd. additional bypass during 2001-2005 period--annexations |
20,500 |
|||||||
by existing munis (MWh) |
||||||||
Estd. additional bypass per year during 2001-2005 period--annexations |
4,100 |
|||||||
by existing munis (MWh) |
||||||||
Potential bypass from new muni/ID formation, 2001-2005 (MWh) |
||||||||
Brentwood |
250,000 |
|||||||
Davis |
380,000,000 |
|||||||
Laguna ID |
||||||||
|
Existing Muni |
Potential Condemnations |
Estimated |
Condemnation |
Total Muni | |||
|
Annexations |
Brentwood |
Davis |
San Francisco |
Total |
Probability of |
Expected Value |
Bypass Estimate |
Cumulative Bypass Estimates by Year |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
(MWh) |
Success |
(MWh) |
Success |
2000 |
100,800 |
0 |
0 |
100,800 | ||||
2001 |
104,900 |
0 |
0 |
104,900 | ||||
2002 |
109,000 |
250 |
380,000 |
0 |
380,250 |
10% |
38,025 |
147,025 |
2003 |
113,100 |
260 |
383,800 |
0 |
384,060 |
10% |
38,406 |
151,506 |
2004 |
117,200 |
270 |
387,638 |
0 |
387,908 |
10% |
38,791 |
155,991 |
2005 |
121,300 |
281 |
391,514 |
0 |
391,796 |
10% |
39,180 |
160,480 |
Growth rate => |
4.0% |
1.0% |
2.0% |
(END OF APPENDIX 3)