Gottstein Energy Report

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements i i

List of Tables v v

Introduction 7 7

Summary of Results 8 8

Methodology 12 12

Statewide Portfolio Assessment 13 13

Goal Attainment 13 13

Comparison with CPUC Goals, Potentials, and Utility Plans 13 13

Goal Attainment Sensitivity Analysis 13 13

Energy Savings Overview 15 15

Comprehensiveness 16 16

Policy and Policy-Related Issues 18 18

Administrative Costs 18 18

CPUC Oversight Responsibility 20 20

Projected Goal Attainment versus Evaluation Confirmed Effects 20 20

Net to Gross 21 21

Policy and Incentives and Rewards 22 22

Policies that Emphasize the Lowest Energy Cost 22 22

Inconsistency of Savings Estimates 22 22

Contingency Fund 23 23

Code Compliance May Have Potential 23 23

Information and Education Resource Effects 24 24

Program Integration Opportunity Has Potential 24 24

Non-Comparable kW Estimates 24 24

Risk Issues 25 25

DEER and Non-DEER 25 25

NTG Sensitivity Analysis on Portfolio Cost-Effectiveness 26 26

Effect of the Economy and Other Conditions on Projections 27 27

Flagship Programs versus Other Programs 27 27

Start Up May Be Slower Than Expected 28 28

Heavily Dependent on Lighting 29 29

Incenting Title 20 and Title 24 Measures 32 32

TRC Scores and Budget Balance 33 33

TRC and PAC Issues 34 34

The Portfolio and the NTG 34 34

Large Budgets for Questionable Programs 34 34

On-Bill Financing May Pose Image Risk to CPUC 35 35

Implications for Long-Term Savings 36 36

Savings Data Dictionary 36 36

Substantial Funding for "Other" Sector 37 37

Lost Opportunities 37 37

Agricultural Programs 37 37

Manufactured Housing 38 38

New Manufactured Housing Programs 38 38

Replacements of HID Lights 38 38

Program Consistency 38 38

Portfolio Components Not Reviewed 39 39

Bidding and Third-Party Issues 39 39

Evaluation Issues 39 39

Evaluation Data and New Tracking Systems 39 39

Process and Impact Evaluations for PG&E's and SCE's New Approach 39 39

Need to Conduct Marketing Effects Evaluation Early 39 39

Partnership Programs 40 40

Third-Party Programs 40 40

Natural Gas Programs 40 40

Bid Programs 40 40

Information and Education Resource Effects 40 40

Confirm the TRC with Current Evaluation Data 41 41

KW versus kWh 41 41

Attribution Issues 41 41

Estimates Based on Old Data 41 41

Update the Potentials Studies 41 41

Market Sector Grouping Evaluation Approach 41 41

Market Sector, Top-Down Assessment 42 42

Conclusion 42 42

PG&E Portfolio Overview 43 43

Goal Attainment - PG&E 44 44

Comparison with CPUC Goals 45 45

Comparison with Potential 45 45

Budgets and Service Offerings Balance 46 46

Energy Savings Issues 47 47

Cost-Effectiveness - PG&E 51 51

TRC and PAC Issues 51 51

Issues Addressed - PG&E 51 51

Administrative Costs 51 51

Net to Gross 52 52

Workpapers 52 52

Demand Savings 52 52

Flagship Programs versus Other Programs 53 53

Energy Accounting Issues 53 53

Risk Issues 54 54

Comprehensiveness and Lost Opportunities - PG&E 54 54

Bidding and Third-Party Issues - PG&E 55 55

Partnership Program - PG&E 55 55

Evaluation Issues - PG&E 55 55

Evaluation Policy Issues - New Construction Programs 56 56

Conclusion 56 56

Program-Level Assessment - PG&E 57 57

SDG&E Portfolio Overview 64 64

Goals Attainment - SDG&E 65 65

Comparison with CPUC Goals 65 65

Comparison with Potential 66 66

Budgets and Services Offering Balance 68 68

Energy Savings Issues 69 69

Cost-Effectiveness - SDG&E 73 73

Issues Addressed - SDG&E 74 74

Administrative Costs 74 74

Net to Gross 75 75

Risk Issues 76 76

Comprehensiveness and Lost Opportunities - SDG&E 78 78

Evaluation Considerations 79 79

Partnership Programs 79 79

Third-Party Programs 80 80

Bid Programs 80 80

Marketing and Outreach Programs 80 80

Confirm the TRC with Current Evaluation Data 80 80

KW versus kWh 80 80

Attribution Issues 80 80

Market Sector Grouping Evaluation Approach 81 81

Bidding Programs - SDG&E 81 81

Partnership Programs - SDG&E 81 81

Policy Issues - SDG&E 81 81

Conclusion 81 81

Program-Level Assessment - SDG&E 82 82

SCE Portfolio Overview 90 90

Goals Attainment - SCE 90 90

Comparison with CPUC Goals 91 91

Comparison with Potential 92 92

Budgets and Service Offerings Balance 93 93

Energy Savings Issues 93 93

Cost-Effectiveness - SCE 98 98

TRC Issues 98 98

Issues Addressed - SCE 100 100

Administrative Costs 100 100

Net to Gross 101 101

Flagship Programs versus Other Programs 101 101

Energy Accounting Issues 102 102

Transparency of Data Issues 102 102

Risk Issues 102 102

Oversight Risk 102 102

Comprehensiveness and Lost Opportunities - SCE 104 104

Bidding and Third-Party Issues - SCE 105 105

Partnership Program - SCE 105 105

Policy Issues - SCE 105 105

Evaluation Issues 106 106

Conclusion 107 107

Program-Level Assessment - SCE 107 107

SCG Portfolio Overview 115 115

Goals Attainment - SCG 116 116

Comparison with CPUC Goals 116 116

Comparison with Potential 116 116

Budgets and Service Offerings Balance 118 118

Energy Savings Issues 119 119

Cost-Effectiveness - SCG 122 122

TRC and PAC Issues 123 123

Issues Addressed - SCG 123 123

Administrative Costs 123 123

Net to Gross 124 124

Risk Issues 124 124

Comprehensiveness and Lost Opportunities - SCG 127 127

Evaluation Considerations 128 128

Bidding and Third-Party Issues - SCG 128 128

Partnership Program - SCG 129 129

Policy Issues - SCG 129 129

Conclusion 129 129

Program-Level Assessment - SCG 130 130

Appendix A. Review of DEER and Non-DEER Energy Saving Estimates... 137 137

Review of DEER Energy Savings Estimates 137 137

Review of Non-DEER Energy Savings Estimates 139 139