4. Long-Term Plan Scenarios - The Resources
The utilities are instructed to file three Long-Term Plans, a high-load scenario, a medium-load scenario, and a low-load scenario. This section provides guidance regarding the definition of those three Plans.
The Medium-Load Plan Scenario. The medium-load plan is to be the preferred resource plan of each utility that meets the needs identified in its Alternative Base Case load-forecast scenario or, if the utility does not choose to file an Alternative Base Case load-forecast scenario, its IEPR-CEC base case scenario. This Plan is to be a utility's best estimate of how it would prepare to meet the needs it believes ultimately will come to be. Though it is not necessary, or even possible, for utilities to specify in detail the placement of new generation facilities that may be needed up to ten years in advance, nor is it possible to indicate the specific paths of transmission additions or upgrades, it is appropriate that the utilities be more specific than they were in the Long-Term Plans submitted in 2003.
Edison faces special circumstances regarding the disposition of the Mohave generating plant. There is an ongoing proceeding, A.02-05-046, in which the Commission will decide whether Edison may shut down the plant permanently in 2006, or whether it must refurbish the plant and re-open it at a later date. Edison's long-term plan may assume that the Mohave plant will be retired for its medium-load plan scenario. However, Edison should include a discussion of how that plan would be affected by a decision by this Commission that Mohave must be refurbished. Edison should also include such a discussion in its high-load and low-load plan scenarios.
As indicated in D.04-01-050, we would like to see discussion of the planning process upon which the Plan has been based, including discussion of the needs of customers on a sub-service territory level, i.e., in a "bottom-up" review of needs and resource development.
In addition, it would be appropriate to include alternative versions of this Plan reflecting different resource development options, reflecting differing expectations about the desirability of in-service-area generation, new transmission, and different fuel types.
High-Load Plan Scenario. The High-Load Plan is not to be an extreme case that has little chance of coming to pass. Rather, it should be a reasonable guess at how great the burden of service could become under high, but not unreasonable assumptions about future load growth. The Plan should be based on the assumption of greater than expected economic growth, resulting in higher load growth, assumption of a modest core-noncore load loss beginning only in 2009, and a modest development of CCA, also beginning in 2009. The utilities should assume that current levels of DA will continue throughout the time horizon.
Low-Load Plan Scenario. The Low-Load Plan similarly, is not to be an extreme example of conservation and changed priorities of Californians. Rather, it should be based on reasonable but pessimistic assumptions about the economy and on generous assumptions about the development of core-noncore impacts and CCA. Assume aggressive CCA development beginning in 2006, and an aggressive core-noncore scenario from the choices discussed above. Again, assume the continuation of DA service at current levels.
