Gottstein Agenda Dec. Revision 1 2006 Update of Avoided Costs and Related Issues Pertaining to Energy Efficiency Resources
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TABLE 1. Updated Natural Gas Long-Run Forecast

(Nominal $/MMBTU)*

* Gray area from 2006 through 2011 is not used in computation of avoided costs, gas futures data from NYMEX is used through 2011. Shaded area from 2012 to 2014 is the transition period. During the transition period, the natural gas forecast is a blend of NYMEX futures and the Long-Run gas forecast.

The current E3 methodology uses an average of the EIA, CEC and SoCalGas forecasts as the input stream for calculating electric generation avoided costs. This table shows the long-run (also referred to as "fundamental") gas price forecasts based on an average of these updated forecasts. Note that only the values in 2015 and later are used in either gas or electric avoided cost calculations. 1

The SoCalGas 4/2/04 forecast was originally provided as inputs to the 2004 California Gas Report. It was subsequently used in the 2004 Market Price Referent (MPR) Staff Report as one of several natural gas price forecasts that were averaged together. In April 2005, parties agreed to use the three non-proprietary fundamental gas price forecasts from the MPR staff report as inputs to the E3 avoided cost update. In February 2006, parties agreed that the EIA and CEC fundamental gas price forecasts should be updated. SoCal Gas informed parties at the February workshop that an update to their forecast was not available. The updates to the CEC and EIA forecasts are described in the Final Report, on pages 36-37.

2. Natural Gas Forecast (Wholesale to the Natural Gas Utility)

(Nominal $/MMBTU)

 

PG&E

SoCal Gas

SDG&E

 

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MMBTU)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MMBTU)

% Change

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MMBTU)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MMBTU)

% Change

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MMBTU)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MMBTU)

% Change

2006

6.86

8.15

19%

6.50

7.84

21%

6.50

7.84

21%

2007

6.45

8.88

38%

6.10

8.45

38%

6.10

8.45

38%

2008

6.04

8.54

41%

6.04

8.02

33%

6.04

8.02

33%

2009

5.71

8.61

51%

5.71

7.53

32%

5.71

7.53

32%

2010

5.45

8.12

49%

5.45

7.23

33%

5.45

7.23

33%

2011

5.35

7.70

44%

5.35

7.70

44%

5.35

7.70

44%

2012

5.28

7.29

38%

5.28

7.29

38%

5.28

7.29

38%

2013

5.21

6.88

32%

5.21

6.88

32%

5.21

6.88

32%

2014

5.43

6.47

19%

5.43

6.47

19%

5.43

6.47

19%

2015

5.66

6.07

7%

5.66

6.07

7%

5.66

6.07

7%

2016

5.81

6.17

6%

5.81

6.17

6%

5.81

6.17

6%

2017

5.97

6.35

6%

5.97

6.35

6%

5.97

6.35

6%

2018

6.25

6.75

8%

6.25

6.75

8%

6.25

6.75

8%

2019

6.55

7.14

9%

6.55

7.14

9%

6.55

7.14

9%

2020

6.81

7.30

7%

6.81

7.30

7%

6.81

7.30

7%

2021

7.10

7.54

6%

7.10

7.54

6%

7.10

7.54

6%

2022

7.36

7.85

7%

7.36

7.85

7%

7.36

7.85

7%

2023

7.60

8.17

7%

7.60

8.17

7%

7.60

8.17

7%

2024

7.89

8.48

7%

7.89

8.48

7%

7.89

8.48

7%

2025

8.19

8.80

7%

8.19

8.80

7%

8.19

8.80

7%

2026

8.44

9.06

7%

8.44

9.06

7%

8.44

9.06

7%

2027

8.71

9.36

7%

8.71

9.36

7%

8.71

9.36

7%

2028

8.98

9.63

7%

8.98

9.63

7%

8.98

9.63

7%

2029

9.25

9.92

7%

9.25

9.92

7%

9.25

9.92

7%

2030

9.52

10.23

7%

9.52

10.23

7%

9.52

10.23

7%

This table shows prices delivered to the utility (Topock for SoCalGas and SDG&E and PG&E CityGate for PG&E).

The data are as follows:

Source

March 2006 Filing

NYMEX Futures and Basis Swaps

2006-2007

NYMEX Futures

2008-2011

Transition between NYMEX and Fundamentals Long-run Forecasts

2012-2014

Fundamentals Long-run Forecast (From Table 1)

2015 onward

Table 3. Natural Gas Price Forecast. Delivered to Electric Generators

(Nominal $/MMBTU)

 

PG&E

SoCal Gas

SDG&E

 

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MMBTU)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MMBTU)

% Change

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MMBTU)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MMBTU)

% Change

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MMBTU)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MMBTU)

% Change

2006

7.09

8.39

18%

6.97

8.33

19%

6.87

8.21

19%

2007

6.68

9.12

37%

6.58

8.96

36%

6.48

8.83

36%

2008

6.26

8.78

40%

6.52

8.53

31%

6.43

8.40

31%

2009

5.93

8.86

49%

6.19

8.04

30%

6.10

7.92

30%

2010

5.67

8.37

48%

5.93

7.75

31%

5.85

7.63

31%

2011

5.58

7.95

43%

5.84

8.23

41%

5.76

8.11

41%

2012

5.51

7.54

37%

5.78

7.83

35%

5.70

7.71

35%

2013

5.44

7.13

31%

5.72

7.42

30%

5.64

7.31

30%

2014

5.66

6.72

19%

5.95

7.01

18%

5.86

6.91

18%

2015

5.91

6.31

7%

6.20

6.61

7%

6.11

6.51

7%

2016

6.06

6.42

6%

6.35

6.72

6%

6.26

6.63

6%

2017

6.23

6.61

6%

6.53

6.91

6%

6.44

6.81

6%

2018

6.51

7.01

8%

6.82

7.32

7%

6.72

7.22

7%

2019

6.82

7.41

9%

7.13

7.73

8%

7.03

7.62

8%

2020

7.09

7.58

7%

7.41

7.90

7%

7.30

7.79

7%

2021

7.38

7.83

6%

7.71

8.16

6%

7.60

8.04

6%

2022

7.65

8.15

7%

7.99

8.49

6%

7.87

8.37

6%

2023

7.90

8.47

7%

8.24

8.82

7%

8.13

8.69

7%

2024

8.19

8.79

7%

8.55

9.14

7%

8.42

9.01

7%

2025

8.50

9.12

7%

8.86

9.48

7%

8.73

9.34

7%

2026

8.76

9.38

7%

9.13

9.75

7%

8.99

9.61

7%

2027

9.04

9.69

7%

9.41

10.07

7%

9.28

9.92

7%

2028

9.31

9.97

7%

9.70

10.35

7%

9.56

10.20

7%

2029

9.59

10.26

7%

9.98

10.66

7%

9.84

10.50

7%

2030

9.87

10.59

7%

10.27

10.99

7%

10.12

10.83

7%

This is Table 2 plus natural gas delivery charges and surcharges for electric generators.

Table 4. Electric Generation Avoided Costs

Includes all adders and multipliers except for transmission and distribution (T&D).

 

PG&E

SDG&E

SCE

 

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MWh)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MWh)

% Change

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MWh)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MWh)

% Change

June 2005 Filing (Nominal $/MWh)

March 2006 Update (Nominal $/MWh)

% Change

2006

79.49

69.51

-13%

81.14

70.79

-13%

81.27

70.91

-13%

2007

74.70

81.86

10%

77.30

82.93

7%

77.42

83.06

7%

2008

75.56

96.07

27%

77.41

92.56

20%

76.96

93.96

22%

2009

73.50

97.33

32%

75.40

89.34

18%

74.98

90.65

21%

2010

72.03

93.98

30%

73.99

87.69

19%

73.60

88.96

21%

2011

72.11

91.42

27%

74.13

92.40

25%

73.74

93.74

27%

2012

72.40

88.92

23%

74.48

90.02

21%

74.10

91.30

23%

2013

72.73

86.46

19%

74.87

87.69

17%

74.50

88.90

19%

2014

75.44

84.04

11%

77.63

85.40

10%

77.24

86.54

12%

2015

78.36

81.67

4%

80.61

83.15

3%

80.21

84.23

5%

2016

80.57

83.56

4%

82.88

85.09

3%

82.46

86.19

5%

2017

83.00

86.08

4%

85.37

87.66

3%

84.94

88.79

5%

2018

86.40

90.48

5%

88.84

92.06

4%

88.39

93.26

6%

2019

90.01

94.88

5%

92.51

96.47

4%

92.04

97.74

6%

2020

93.43

97.39

4%

96.00

99.03

3%

95.51

100.33

5%

2021

97.09

100.70

4%

99.73

102.38

3%

99.22

103.73

5%

2022

100.59

104.63

4%

103.31

106.35

3%

102.77

107.75

5%

2023

104.01

108.66

4%

106.81

110.42

3%

106.26

111.88

5%

2024

107.67

112.49

4%

110.54

114.28

3%

109.97

115.79

5%

2025

111.50

116.49

4%

114.44

118.32

3%

113.85

119.89

5%

This is a combination of market forwards in 20067 and 2007, then long-run marginal cost (LRMC) of a combined cycle combustion turbine (CCGT) in years 2008 onward. The CCGT LRMC uses the natural gas prices from Table 3.

Table 5. Natural Gas Avoided Costs (commodity and environmental) for Gas Energy Efficiency Measures

1. The natural gas avoided costs vary by month. This variation is not needed for calculating an annual average LRMC for a CCGT, but it does matter for gas efficiency measures.

2. The natural gas avoided costs vary by the type of combustion device being affected. Different devices will have different air emissions for the same therm of natural gas input. This results in slightly different environmental costs for the different devices. Tt is assumed that residential measures reduce emissions that are consistent with a furnace, and commercial customers reduce emissions that are consistent with a small boiler that does not have emission controls installed. (These assumptions have been in place since the marginal costs were produced for energy efficiency evaluation in April 2005).

These avoided costs start with the values in Table 2, apply the monthly price shape exhibited by the NYMEX data, adjust for losses and unaccounted for, and then add on the environmental costs (based on furnace or small boiler emission rates).

Like electricity avoided costs, gas T&D avoided costs remain unchanged. The gas T&D avoided costs can be found in Tables 32 and 33 on page 138 of E3's October 25, 2004 Methodology and Forecast report.

PG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Residential ($Nominal / Therm)

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

1.101

0.840

0.787

0.908

0.903

0.904

0.900

0.910

0.913

0.914

0.990

1.067

2007

1.124

1.124

1.104

0.957

0.936

0.942

0.949

0.955

0.957

0.963

1.000

1.058

2008

1.104

1.103

1.083

0.925

0.905

0.910

0.915

0.920

0.921

0.927

0.957

1.015

2009

1.139

1.138

1.116

0.920

0.899

0.905

0.911

0.916

0.918

0.924

0.982

1.039

2010

1.088

1.083

1.065

0.875

0.856

0.861

0.866

0.871

0.871

0.878

0.935

0.992

2011

1.046

1.044

1.023

0.845

0.827

0.832

0.837

0.842

0.842

0.847

0.900

0.953

2012

1.001

0.997

0.980

0.811

0.793

0.798

0.802

0.807

0.807

0.813

0.865

0.960

2013

0.960

0.957

0.941

0.781

0.765

0.769

0.773

0.777

0.778

0.783

0.832

0.922

2014

0.921

0.917

0.903

0.752

0.737

0.740

0.745

0.748

0.749

0.754

0.800

0.884

2015

0.882

0.878

0.865

0.724

0.709

0.713

0.717

0.720

0.721

0.726

0.768

0.848

2016

0.906

0.902

0.888

0.745

0.730

0.734

0.738

0.741

0.742

0.747

0.790

0.871

2017

0.939

0.935

0.921

0.774

0.758

0.762

0.766

0.770

0.770

0.775

0.820

0.903

2018

1.000

0.996

0.981

0.824

0.808

0.812

0.816

0.820

0.821

0.826

0.874

0.962

2019

1.061

1.057

1.041

0.875

0.858

0.863

0.867

0.871

0.872

0.877

0.928

1.021

2020

1.095

1.091

1.075

0.905

0.888

0.892

0.897

0.901

0.902

0.907

0.959

1.054

2021

1.141

1.137

1.120

0.945

0.927

0.932

0.936

0.941

0.941

0.947

1.001

1.099

2022

1.197

1.193

1.175

0.993

0.974

0.979

0.984

0.988

0.989

0.995

1.050

1.153

2023

1.255

1.250

1.232

1.042

1.023

1.027

1.033

1.037

1.038

1.044

1.102

1.209

2024

1.308

1.303

1.284

1.087

1.067

1.072

1.077

1.082

1.083

1.089

1.149

1.260

2025

1.364

1.359

1.339

1.135

1.114

1.119

1.124

1.130

1.130

1.137

1.199

1.314

2026

1.412

1.407

1.387

1.176

1.155

1.160

1.166

1.171

1.172

1.179

1.243

1.361

2027

1.465

1.460

1.439

1.222

1.199

1.205

1.211

1.217

1.217

1.224

1.291

1.413

2028

1.516

1.510

1.489

1.265

1.242

1.248

1.254

1.260

1.260

1.268

1.336

1.461

2029

1.568

1.562

1.540

1.309

1.286

1.292

1.298

1.304

1.305

1.312

1.382

1.512

2030

1.623

1.618

1.595

1.357

1.332

1.338

1.345

1.351

1.352

1.360

1.432

1.565

Based on residential furnace

SoCalGas Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Residential ($Nominal / Therm)

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

1.052

0.807

0.754

0.861

0.859

0.862

0.867

0.876

0.881

0.874

0.961

1.037

2007

1.075

1.075

1.055

0.906

0.886

0.892

0.899

0.905

0.906

0.913

0.951

1.009

2008

1.054

1.053

1.033

0.863

0.844

0.849

0.854

0.859

0.860

0.866

0.895

0.952

2009

1.022

1.021

0.999

0.804

0.784

0.790

0.796

0.801

0.803

0.809

0.866

0.923

2010

0.991

0.987

0.969

0.780

0.761

0.766

0.771

0.776

0.776

0.782

0.840

0.896

2011

1.040

1.038

1.017

0.841

0.823

0.827

0.832

0.837

0.837

0.842

0.895

0.948

2012

0.995

0.991

0.975

0.806

0.789

0.793

0.798

0.802

0.803

0.809

0.860

0.954

2013

0.955

0.951

0.936

0.777

0.761

0.765

0.769

0.773

0.774

0.779

0.827

0.917

2014

0.916

0.912

0.898

0.748

0.733

0.737

0.741

0.745

0.745

0.750

0.796

0.879

2015

0.877

0.874

0.860

0.720

0.706

0.709

0.713

0.717

0.717

0.722

0.764

0.843

2016

0.901

0.898

0.884

0.741

0.726

0.730

0.734

0.738

0.738

0.743

0.786

0.866

2017

0.934

0.931

0.917

0.770

0.755

0.758

0.762

0.766

0.767

0.772

0.816

0.899

2018

0.995

0.991

0.976

0.820

0.804

0.808

0.812

0.816

0.817

0.822

0.870

0.957

2019

1.056

1.052

1.036

0.871

0.854

0.858

0.863

0.867

0.868

0.873

0.923

1.016

2020

1.090

1.086

1.070

0.901

0.884

0.888

0.893

0.897

0.897

0.903

0.954

1.049

2021

1.136

1.132

1.115

0.940

0.923

0.927

0.932

0.936

0.937

0.943

0.996

1.093

2022

1.191

1.187

1.169

0.988

0.969

0.974

0.979

0.984

0.984

0.990

1.045

1.147

2023

1.249

1.244

1.226

1.037

1.018

1.023

1.028

1.033

1.033

1.040

1.097

1.203

2024

1.301

1.297

1.278

1.082

1.062

1.067

1.072

1.077

1.078

1.084

1.144

1.254

2025

1.357

1.352

1.333

1.129

1.109

1.114

1.119

1.125

1.125

1.132

1.194

1.308

2026

1.405

1.400

1.380

1.171

1.149

1.155

1.160

1.166

1.166

1.173

1.237

1.354

2027

1.458

1.453

1.432

1.216

1.194

1.199

1.205

1.211

1.212

1.219

1.285

1.406

2028

1.508

1.503

1.482

1.259

1.236

1.242

1.248

1.254

1.254

1.262

1.330

1.454

2029

1.560

1.555

1.533

1.303

1.280

1.286

1.292

1.298

1.299

1.306

1.376

1.505

2030

1.615

1.610

1.587

1.350

1.326

1.332

1.339

1.345

1.345

1.353

1.425

1.558

Based on residential furnace

SDG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Residential ($Nominal / Therm)

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

1.048

0.804

0.752

0.858

0.857

0.859

0.865

0.873

0.878

0.872

0.958

1.034

2007

1.072

1.072

1.052

0.903

0.884

0.889

0.896

0.902

0.903

0.910

0.948

1.005

2008

1.051

1.050

1.030

0.861

0.841

0.846

0.851

0.856

0.858

0.863

0.892

0.949

2009

1.019

1.018

0.996

0.802

0.782

0.788

0.794

0.799

0.800

0.806

0.864

0.920

2010

0.988

0.984

0.966

0.778

0.758

0.763

0.768

0.773

0.774

0.780

0.837

0.893

2011

1.036

1.035

1.014

0.838

0.820

0.825

0.830

0.835

0.835

0.840

0.892

0.945

2012

0.992

0.988

0.972

0.804

0.787

0.791

0.796

0.800

0.800

0.806

0.857

0.951

2013

0.952

0.948

0.933

0.775

0.758

0.762

0.767

0.771

0.771

0.777

0.825

0.914

2014

0.913

0.909

0.895

0.746

0.731

0.734

0.739

0.742

0.743

0.748

0.793

0.877

2015

0.874

0.871

0.858

0.718

0.704

0.707

0.711

0.715

0.715

0.720

0.762

0.841

2016

0.898

0.895

0.881

0.739

0.724

0.728

0.732

0.736

0.736

0.741

0.784

0.864

2017

0.931

0.928

0.914

0.768

0.753

0.756

0.760

0.764

0.765

0.770

0.814

0.896

2018

0.992

0.988

0.973

0.818

0.802

0.806

0.810

0.814

0.815

0.820

0.867

0.954

2019

1.053

1.049

1.033

0.869

0.852

0.856

0.861

0.865

0.865

0.871

0.921

1.013

2020

1.087

1.083

1.067

0.899

0.881

0.886

0.890

0.895

0.895

0.901

0.952

1.046

2021

1.132

1.128

1.112

0.938

0.920

0.925

0.929

0.934

0.934

0.940

0.993

1.090

2022

1.188

1.184

1.166

0.985

0.967

0.971

0.976

0.981

0.981

0.988

1.043

1.144

2023

1.245

1.241

1.223

1.034

1.015

1.020

1.025

1.030

1.030

1.037

1.094

1.200

2024

1.298

1.293

1.274

1.079

1.059

1.064

1.069

1.074

1.075

1.082

1.141

1.250

2025

1.353

1.349

1.329

1.126

1.106

1.111

1.116

1.122

1.122

1.129

1.191

1.304

2026

1.401

1.397

1.376

1.168

1.146

1.152

1.157

1.163

1.163

1.170

1.234

1.351

2027

1.454

1.449

1.429

1.213

1.191

1.196

1.202

1.208

1.208

1.216

1.281

1.402

2028

1.504

1.499

1.478

1.256

1.233

1.239

1.245

1.251

1.251

1.259

1.326

1.451

2029

1.556

1.551

1.529

1.300

1.277

1.283

1.289

1.295

1.295

1.303

1.372

1.501

2030

1.611

1.605

1.583

1.347

1.323

1.329

1.335

1.341

1.342

1.350

1.422

1.554

Based on residential furnace

PG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Commercial ($Nominal / Therm)

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

1.104

0.843

0.790

0.911

0.906

0.906

0.902

0.913

0.915

0.917

0.992

1.069

2007

1.126

1.127

1.107

0.959

0.939

0.945

0.951

0.958

0.959

0.966

1.003

1.061

2008

1.107

1.106

1.086

0.927

0.908

0.912

0.918

0.923

0.924

0.930

0.960

1.017

2009

1.142

1.141

1.119

0.922

0.902

0.908

0.914

0.919

0.921

0.927

0.985

1.042

2010

1.091

1.086

1.068

0.878

0.859

0.863

0.869

0.874

0.874

0.880

0.938

0.995

2011

1.049

1.047

1.026

0.848

0.830

0.835

0.840

0.845

0.845

0.850

0.903

0.956

2012

1.004

1.000

0.984

0.814

0.797

0.801

0.806

0.810

0.811

0.816

0.868

0.963

2013

0.964

0.960

0.945

0.785

0.768

0.773

0.777

0.781

0.782

0.787

0.836

0.925

2014

0.925

0.921

0.907

0.756

0.741

0.745

0.749

0.753

0.753

0.758

0.804

0.888

2015

0.886

0.883

0.870

0.728

0.714

0.717

0.721

0.725

0.725

0.730

0.773

0.852

2016

0.911

0.907

0.894

0.750

0.735

0.739

0.743

0.746

0.747

0.752

0.795

0.876

2017

0.945

0.941

0.927

0.779

0.764

0.768

0.772

0.776

0.776

0.781

0.826

0.909

2018

1.006

1.002

0.987

0.830

0.814

0.818

0.823

0.827

0.827

0.832

0.880

0.968

2019

1.068

1.064

1.048

0.882

0.865

0.869

0.874

0.878

0.879

0.884

0.935

1.028

2020

1.103

1.099

1.083

0.913

0.895

0.900

0.904

0.909

0.909

0.915

0.967

1.062

2021

1.150

1.146

1.129

0.953

0.935

0.940

0.945

0.949

0.950

0.955

1.009

1.107

2022

1.206

1.202

1.184

1.002

0.983

0.988

0.993

0.997

0.998

1.004

1.060

1.162

2023

1.265

1.260

1.242

1.052

1.033

1.037

1.043

1.047

1.048

1.054

1.112

1.219

2024

1.318

1.314

1.295

1.098

1.077

1.082

1.088

1.093

1.093

1.100

1.160

1.271

2025

1.375

1.371

1.351

1.146

1.125

1.130

1.136

1.141

1.142

1.149

1.211

1.326

2026

1.424

1.419

1.399

1.188

1.167

1.172

1.178

1.183

1.184

1.191

1.255

1.373

2027

1.478

1.473

1.452

1.235

1.212

1.218

1.224

1.230

1.230

1.238

1.304

1.426

2028

1.529

1.524

1.503

1.279

1.256

1.261

1.268

1.273

1.274

1.282

1.350

1.475

2029

1.582

1.577

1.555

1.324

1.300

1.306

1.313

1.318

1.319

1.327

1.397

1.526

2030

1.638

1.633

1.610

1.372

1.348

1.354

1.360

1.366

1.367

1.375

1.447

1.581

Based on small boiler without emission controls

SoCalGas Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Commercial ($Nominal / Therm)

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

1.055

0.810

0.757

0.864

0.862

0.865

0.870

0.878

0.884

0.877

0.964

1.040

2007

1.078

1.078

1.058

0.909

0.889

0.895

0.901

0.908

0.909

0.916

0.954

1.011

2008

1.057

1.056

1.036

0.866

0.846

0.851

0.857

0.862

0.863

0.868

0.898

0.955

2009

1.025

1.024

1.002

0.807

0.787

0.793

0.799

0.804

0.806

0.812

0.869

0.926

2010

0.994

0.990

0.971

0.783

0.764

0.768

0.773

0.778

0.779

0.785

0.843

0.899

2011

1.043

1.041

1.020

0.844

0.826

0.831

0.836

0.841

0.841

0.846

0.898

0.951

2012

0.999

0.995

0.979

0.810

0.793

0.797

0.802

0.806

0.806

0.812

0.863

0.958

2013

0.959

0.955

0.940

0.781

0.764

0.769

0.773

0.777

0.777

0.783

0.831

0.920

2014

0.920

0.916

0.902

0.752

0.737

0.741

0.745

0.749

0.749

0.754

0.800

0.884

2015

0.882

0.878

0.865

0.725

0.710

0.714

0.718

0.721

0.722

0.727

0.769

0.848

2016

0.906

0.903

0.889

0.746

0.732

0.735

0.739

0.743

0.743

0.748

0.791

0.871

2017

0.940

0.936

0.922

0.775

0.760

0.764

0.768

0.772

0.772

0.777

0.822

0.904

2018

1.001

0.997

0.982

0.826

0.810

0.814

0.819

0.823

0.823

0.828

0.876

0.963

2019

1.063

1.059

1.043

0.878

0.861

0.865

0.870

0.874

0.874

0.880

0.930

1.023

2020

1.097

1.093

1.077

0.908

0.891

0.895

0.900

0.904

0.905

0.911

0.962

1.056

2021

1.144

1.140

1.123

0.949

0.931

0.935

0.940

0.945

0.945

0.951

1.004

1.102

2022

1.200

1.196

1.179

0.997

0.978

0.983

0.988

0.993

0.993

0.999

1.054

1.156

2023

1.259

1.254

1.236

1.047

1.028

1.033

1.038

1.043

1.043

1.049

1.107

1.213

2024

1.312

1.307

1.289

1.093

1.072

1.077

1.083

1.088

1.088

1.095

1.155

1.265

2025

1.369

1.364

1.344

1.141

1.120

1.125

1.131

1.136

1.137

1.143

1.205

1.319

2026

1.417

1.413

1.392

1.183

1.162

1.167

1.173

1.178

1.179

1.186

1.249

1.367

2027

1.471

1.466

1.445

1.229

1.207

1.213

1.218

1.224

1.225

1.232

1.298

1.419

2028

1.522

1.517

1.496

1.273

1.250

1.256

1.262

1.268

1.268

1.276

1.343

1.468

2029

1.575

1.569

1.547

1.318

1.295

1.300

1.307

1.313

1.313

1.321

1.391

1.519

2030

1.631

1.625

1.602

1.366

1.342

1.348

1.354

1.360

1.361

1.369

1.441

1.573

Based on small boiler without emission controls

SDG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Commercial ($Nominal / Therm)

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

1.051

0.807

0.754

0.861

0.859

0.862

0.867

0.876

0.881

0.874

0.961

1.037

2007

1.075

1.075

1.055

0.906

0.886

0.892

0.898

0.905

0.906

0.913

0.951

1.008

2008

1.053

1.052

1.033

0.863

0.844

0.849

0.854

0.859

0.860

0.866

0.895

0.952

2009

1.022

1.021

0.999

0.805

0.784

0.791

0.796

0.801

0.803

0.809

0.866

0.923

2010

0.991

0.987

0.968

0.780

0.761

0.766

0.771

0.776

0.776

0.783

0.840

0.896

2011

1.040

1.038

1.017

0.841

0.823

0.828

0.833

0.838

0.838

0.843

0.896

0.948

2012

0.996

0.992

0.976

0.807

0.790

0.795

0.799

0.804

0.804

0.810

0.861

0.955

2013

0.956

0.952

0.937

0.778

0.762

0.766

0.771

0.775

0.775

0.780

0.829

0.918

2014

0.917

0.914

0.899

0.750

0.735

0.739

0.743

0.747

0.747

0.752

0.797

0.881

2015

0.879

0.876

0.862

0.723

0.708

0.712

0.716

0.719

0.720

0.724

0.767

0.845

2016

0.903

0.900

0.886

0.744

0.730

0.733

0.737

0.741

0.741

0.746

0.789

0.869

2017

0.937

0.934

0.920

0.773

0.758

0.762

0.766

0.770

0.770

0.775

0.820

0.902

2018

0.998

0.994

0.980

0.824

0.808

0.812

0.816

0.820

0.821

0.826

0.873

0.960

2019

1.060

1.056

1.040

0.875

0.859

0.863

0.867

0.872

0.872

0.878

0.928

1.020

2020

1.094

1.090

1.074

0.906

0.889

0.893

0.898

0.902

0.902

0.908

0.959

1.053

2021

1.141

1.137

1.120

0.946

0.928

0.933

0.938

0.942

0.943

0.948

1.001

1.099

2022

1.197

1.193

1.175

0.994

0.976

0.980

0.985

0.990

0.991

0.997

1.052

1.153

2023

1.255

1.251

1.233

1.044

1.025

1.030

1.035

1.040

1.040

1.047

1.104

1.210

2024

1.308

1.304

1.285

1.090

1.070

1.075

1.080

1.085

1.086

1.092

1.152

1.261

2025

1.365

1.360

1.341

1.138

1.117

1.122

1.128

1.133

1.134

1.140

1.202

1.316

2026

1.414

1.409

1.389

1.180

1.159

1.164

1.170

1.175

1.176

1.183

1.246

1.363

2027

1.467

1.462

1.442

1.226

1.204

1.209

1.215

1.221

1.222

1.229

1.294

1.415

2028

1.518

1.513

1.492

1.270

1.247

1.253

1.259

1.264

1.265

1.273

1.340

1.464

2029

1.570

1.565

1.543

1.315

1.291

1.297

1.303

1.309

1.310

1.318

1.387

1.515

2030

1.626

1.621

1.598

1.362

1.338

1.344

1.351

1.357

1.357

1.365

1.437

1.569

Based on small boiler without emission controls

(END OF ATTACHMENT 3)

1 The Final Report incorrectly refers to these values as "Henry Hub." These values are derived from forecasts for delivery in California. However, after 2007, the E3 methodology assumes no basis spread between Henry Hub and California delivery points, so there is no difference between the Henry Hub and the "delivered to utility" forecast prices

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