16. Water Supply Mix

For the Claremont CSA, SCWC projects that approximately 38% (2,130,623 Ccf) of its water supply for the test years would come from groundwater pumped from SCWC wells within the CSA. ORA, on the other hand, estimates an amount of 2,684,500 Ccf, or 48% for both years

SCWC argues that ORA's estimate is unrealistic for the following reasons. First, groundwater production has declined for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to decline. Second, the Master Water Level Index in the Six Basins, from which the Claremont wells draw, is falling, thereby reducing the amount of water that SCWC is capable of pumping from its wells. Third, SCWC's wells in the Claremont CSA also suffer from contamination concerns. Wells have been unreliable due to water quality issues (VOCs, bacteriological, and mechanical). In addition, in 2004, the new standard for arsenic becomes effective and the largest single producing well in the Claremont CSA will have to be shut down due to arsenic. Fourth, the two wells that are budgeted for the Claremont CSA (1 for 2003 and 1 for 2004) are intended to be replacement wells, not to provide an increase in production capacity. These new wells are needed because 16 out of 18 SCWC-owned wells in the Claremont CSA are more than 50 years old, with an average age for the 18 wells of 69 years.

ORA argues that its recommendations for Claremont are based on better, more realistic analysis than SCWC's and are consistent with its approach in other districts. ORA asserts that its forecast discards unusually high and low years to try to predict a more "average" year in the future based on past trends and considers the fact that two new, deep wells - which are more immune to spikes in rainfall - are scheduled to be built by the company in 2003 and 2004

As discussed below, we adopt a groundwater pumped amount of 2,328,374 Ccf for both 2003 and 2004.

16.1. Discussion

The groundwater production in the Claremont CSA has declined substantially and is unlikely to return any time soon to levels achieved in the 1997 to 1999 timeframe. SCWC has provided information showing that new wells in 2003 and 2004 will replace and not supplement groundwater production. The recorded information for the years 2000-2002 indicates significantly less pumped water than for the years 1997-1999,⁴⁸ and is significantly less than ORA's forecasted amounts. However, the data are not consistent with SCWC's assertion that the decline in groundwater production over the past five years will continue. Recorded year 2002 groundwater production of 2,328,374 Ccf is higher than the 2001 amount of 2,130,617 Ccf and very close to the 2000 amount of 2,389,100 Ccf. The SCWC witness indicated that 2002 recorded data were not available at the time estimates were prepared and that the expectation was that production would be similar to that recorded in 2001.⁴⁹ We see no reason why the most recent recorded amount of 2,328,374 Ccf for 2002 cannot be obtained from groundwater wells in 2003 and 2004. We adopt 2,328,374 Ccf as the quantity of water from wells for both 2003 and 2004 and assume that purchases will constitute the remaining portion of water supply for each of those years.