Table 5. Natural Gas Avoided Costs (commodity and environmental) for Gas Energy Efficiency Measures

1. The natural gas avoided costs vary by month. This variation is not needed for calculating an annual average LRMC for a CCGT, but it does matter for gas efficiency measures.

2. The natural gas avoided costs vary by the type of combustion device being affected. Different devices will have different air emissions for the same therm of natural gas input. This results in slightly different environmental costs for the different devices. Tt is assumed that residential measures reduce emissions that are consistent with a furnace, and commercial customers reduce emissions that are consistent with a small boiler that does not have emission controls installed. (These assumptions have been in place since the marginal costs were produced for energy efficiency evaluation in April 2005).

These avoided costs start with the values in Table 2, apply the monthly price shape exhibited by the NYMEX data, adjust for losses and unaccounted for, and then add on the environmental costs (based on furnace or small boiler emission rates).

Like electricity avoided costs, gas T&D avoided costs remain unchanged. The gas T&D avoided costs can be found in Tables 32 and 33 on page 138 of E3's October 25, 2004 Methodology and Forecast report.

PG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Residential ($Nominal / Therm)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2006	1.101	0.840	0.787	0.908	0.903	0.904	0.900	0.910	0.913	0.914	0.990	1.067
2007	1.124	1.124	1.104	0.957	0.936	0.942	0.949	0.955	0.957	0.963	1.000	1.058
2008	1.104	1.103	1.083	0.925	0.905	0.910	0.915	0.920	0.921	0.927	0.957	1.015
2009	1.139	1.138	1.116	0.920	0.899	0.905	0.911	0.916	0.918	0.924	0.982	1.039
2010	1.088	1.083	1.065	0.875	0.856	0.861	0.866	0.871	0.871	0.878	0.935	0.992
2011	1.046	1.044	1.023	0.845	0.827	0.832	0.837	0.842	0.842	0.847	0.900	0.953
2012	1.001	0.997	0.980	0.811	0.793	0.798	0.802	0.807	0.807	0.813	0.865	0.960
2013	0.960	0.957	0.941	0.781	0.765	0.769	0.773	0.777	0.778	0.783	0.832	0.922
2014	0.921	0.917	0.903	0.752	0.737	0.740	0.745	0.748	0.749	0.754	0.800	0.884
2015	0.882	0.878	0.865	0.724	0.709	0.713	0.717	0.720	0.721	0.726	0.768	0.848
2016	0.906	0.902	0.888	0.745	0.730	0.734	0.738	0.741	0.742	0.747	0.790	0.871
2017	0.939	0.935	0.921	0.774	0.758	0.762	0.766	0.770	0.770	0.775	0.820	0.903
2018	1.000	0.996	0.981	0.824	0.808	0.812	0.816	0.820	0.821	0.826	0.874	0.962
2019	1.061	1.057	1.041	0.875	0.858	0.863	0.867	0.871	0.872	0.877	0.928	1.021
2020	1.095	1.091	1.075	0.905	0.888	0.892	0.897	0.901	0.902	0.907	0.959	1.054
2021	1.141	1.137	1.120	0.945	0.927	0.932	0.936	0.941	0.941	0.947	1.001	1.099
2022	1.197	1.193	1.175	0.993	0.974	0.979	0.984	0.988	0.989	0.995	1.050	1.153
2023	1.255	1.250	1.232	1.042	1.023	1.027	1.033	1.037	1.038	1.044	1.102	1.209
2024	1.308	1.303	1.284	1.087	1.067	1.072	1.077	1.082	1.083	1.089	1.149	1.260
2025	1.364	1.359	1.339	1.135	1.114	1.119	1.124	1.130	1.130	1.137	1.199	1.314
2026	1.412	1.407	1.387	1.176	1.155	1.160	1.166	1.171	1.172	1.179	1.243	1.361
2027	1.465	1.460	1.439	1.222	1.199	1.205	1.211	1.217	1.217	1.224	1.291	1.413
2028	1.516	1.510	1.489	1.265	1.242	1.248	1.254	1.260	1.260	1.268	1.336	1.461
2029	1.568	1.562	1.540	1.309	1.286	1.292	1.298	1.304	1.305	1.312	1.382	1.512
2030	1.623	1.618	1.595	1.357	1.332	1.338	1.345	1.351	1.352	1.360	1.432	1.565

Based on residential furnace

SoCalGas Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Residential ($Nominal / Therm)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2006	1.052	0.807	0.754	0.861	0.859	0.862	0.867	0.876	0.881	0.874	0.961	1.037
2007	1.075	1.075	1.055	0.906	0.886	0.892	0.899	0.905	0.906	0.913	0.951	1.009
2008	1.054	1.053	1.033	0.863	0.844	0.849	0.854	0.859	0.860	0.866	0.895	0.952
2009	1.022	1.021	0.999	0.804	0.784	0.790	0.796	0.801	0.803	0.809	0.866	0.923
2010	0.991	0.987	0.969	0.780	0.761	0.766	0.771	0.776	0.776	0.782	0.840	0.896
2011	1.040	1.038	1.017	0.841	0.823	0.827	0.832	0.837	0.837	0.842	0.895	0.948
2012	0.995	0.991	0.975	0.806	0.789	0.793	0.798	0.802	0.803	0.809	0.860	0.954
2013	0.955	0.951	0.936	0.777	0.761	0.765	0.769	0.773	0.774	0.779	0.827	0.917
2014	0.916	0.912	0.898	0.748	0.733	0.737	0.741	0.745	0.745	0.750	0.796	0.879
2015	0.877	0.874	0.860	0.720	0.706	0.709	0.713	0.717	0.717	0.722	0.764	0.843
2016	0.901	0.898	0.884	0.741	0.726	0.730	0.734	0.738	0.738	0.743	0.786	0.866
2017	0.934	0.931	0.917	0.770	0.755	0.758	0.762	0.766	0.767	0.772	0.816	0.899
2018	0.995	0.991	0.976	0.820	0.804	0.808	0.812	0.816	0.817	0.822	0.870	0.957
2019	1.056	1.052	1.036	0.871	0.854	0.858	0.863	0.867	0.868	0.873	0.923	1.016
2020	1.090	1.086	1.070	0.901	0.884	0.888	0.893	0.897	0.897	0.903	0.954	1.049
2021	1.136	1.132	1.115	0.940	0.923	0.927	0.932	0.936	0.937	0.943	0.996	1.093
2022	1.191	1.187	1.169	0.988	0.969	0.974	0.979	0.984	0.984	0.990	1.045	1.147
2023	1.249	1.244	1.226	1.037	1.018	1.023	1.028	1.033	1.033	1.040	1.097	1.203
2024	1.301	1.297	1.278	1.082	1.062	1.067	1.072	1.077	1.078	1.084	1.144	1.254
2025	1.357	1.352	1.333	1.129	1.109	1.114	1.119	1.125	1.125	1.132	1.194	1.308
2026	1.405	1.400	1.380	1.171	1.149	1.155	1.160	1.166	1.166	1.173	1.237	1.354
2027	1.458	1.453	1.432	1.216	1.194	1.199	1.205	1.211	1.212	1.219	1.285	1.406
2028	1.508	1.503	1.482	1.259	1.236	1.242	1.248	1.254	1.254	1.262	1.330	1.454
2029	1.560	1.555	1.533	1.303	1.280	1.286	1.292	1.298	1.299	1.306	1.376	1.505
2030	1.615	1.610	1.587	1.350	1.326	1.332	1.339	1.345	1.345	1.353	1.425	1.558

Based on residential furnace

SDG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Residential ($Nominal / Therm)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2006	1.048	0.804	0.752	0.858	0.857	0.859	0.865	0.873	0.878	0.872	0.958	1.034
2007	1.072	1.072	1.052	0.903	0.884	0.889	0.896	0.902	0.903	0.910	0.948	1.005
2008	1.051	1.050	1.030	0.861	0.841	0.846	0.851	0.856	0.858	0.863	0.892	0.949
2009	1.019	1.018	0.996	0.802	0.782	0.788	0.794	0.799	0.800	0.806	0.864	0.920
2010	0.988	0.984	0.966	0.778	0.758	0.763	0.768	0.773	0.774	0.780	0.837	0.893
2011	1.036	1.035	1.014	0.838	0.820	0.825	0.830	0.835	0.835	0.840	0.892	0.945
2012	0.992	0.988	0.972	0.804	0.787	0.791	0.796	0.800	0.800	0.806	0.857	0.951
2013	0.952	0.948	0.933	0.775	0.758	0.762	0.767	0.771	0.771	0.777	0.825	0.914
2014	0.913	0.909	0.895	0.746	0.731	0.734	0.739	0.742	0.743	0.748	0.793	0.877
2015	0.874	0.871	0.858	0.718	0.704	0.707	0.711	0.715	0.715	0.720	0.762	0.841
2016	0.898	0.895	0.881	0.739	0.724	0.728	0.732	0.736	0.736	0.741	0.784	0.864
2017	0.931	0.928	0.914	0.768	0.753	0.756	0.760	0.764	0.765	0.770	0.814	0.896
2018	0.992	0.988	0.973	0.818	0.802	0.806	0.810	0.814	0.815	0.820	0.867	0.954
2019	1.053	1.049	1.033	0.869	0.852	0.856	0.861	0.865	0.865	0.871	0.921	1.013
2020	1.087	1.083	1.067	0.899	0.881	0.886	0.890	0.895	0.895	0.901	0.952	1.046
2021	1.132	1.128	1.112	0.938	0.920	0.925	0.929	0.934	0.934	0.940	0.993	1.090
2022	1.188	1.184	1.166	0.985	0.967	0.971	0.976	0.981	0.981	0.988	1.043	1.144
2023	1.245	1.241	1.223	1.034	1.015	1.020	1.025	1.030	1.030	1.037	1.094	1.200
2024	1.298	1.293	1.274	1.079	1.059	1.064	1.069	1.074	1.075	1.082	1.141	1.250
2025	1.353	1.349	1.329	1.126	1.106	1.111	1.116	1.122	1.122	1.129	1.191	1.304
2026	1.401	1.397	1.376	1.168	1.146	1.152	1.157	1.163	1.163	1.170	1.234	1.351
2027	1.454	1.449	1.429	1.213	1.191	1.196	1.202	1.208	1.208	1.216	1.281	1.402
2028	1.504	1.499	1.478	1.256	1.233	1.239	1.245	1.251	1.251	1.259	1.326	1.451
2029	1.556	1.551	1.529	1.300	1.277	1.283	1.289	1.295	1.295	1.303	1.372	1.501
2030	1.611	1.605	1.583	1.347	1.323	1.329	1.335	1.341	1.342	1.350	1.422	1.554

Based on residential furnace

PG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Commercial ($Nominal / Therm)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2006	1.104	0.843	0.790	0.911	0.906	0.906	0.902	0.913	0.915	0.917	0.992	1.069
2007	1.126	1.127	1.107	0.959	0.939	0.945	0.951	0.958	0.959	0.966	1.003	1.061
2008	1.107	1.106	1.086	0.927	0.908	0.912	0.918	0.923	0.924	0.930	0.960	1.017
2009	1.142	1.141	1.119	0.922	0.902	0.908	0.914	0.919	0.921	0.927	0.985	1.042
2010	1.091	1.086	1.068	0.878	0.859	0.863	0.869	0.874	0.874	0.880	0.938	0.995
2011	1.049	1.047	1.026	0.848	0.830	0.835	0.840	0.845	0.845	0.850	0.903	0.956
2012	1.004	1.000	0.984	0.814	0.797	0.801	0.806	0.810	0.811	0.816	0.868	0.963
2013	0.964	0.960	0.945	0.785	0.768	0.773	0.777	0.781	0.782	0.787	0.836	0.925
2014	0.925	0.921	0.907	0.756	0.741	0.745	0.749	0.753	0.753	0.758	0.804	0.888
2015	0.886	0.883	0.870	0.728	0.714	0.717	0.721	0.725	0.725	0.730	0.773	0.852
2016	0.911	0.907	0.894	0.750	0.735	0.739	0.743	0.746	0.747	0.752	0.795	0.876
2017	0.945	0.941	0.927	0.779	0.764	0.768	0.772	0.776	0.776	0.781	0.826	0.909
2018	1.006	1.002	0.987	0.830	0.814	0.818	0.823	0.827	0.827	0.832	0.880	0.968
2019	1.068	1.064	1.048	0.882	0.865	0.869	0.874	0.878	0.879	0.884	0.935	1.028
2020	1.103	1.099	1.083	0.913	0.895	0.900	0.904	0.909	0.909	0.915	0.967	1.062
2021	1.150	1.146	1.129	0.953	0.935	0.940	0.945	0.949	0.950	0.955	1.009	1.107
2022	1.206	1.202	1.184	1.002	0.983	0.988	0.993	0.997	0.998	1.004	1.060	1.162
2023	1.265	1.260	1.242	1.052	1.033	1.037	1.043	1.047	1.048	1.054	1.112	1.219
2024	1.318	1.314	1.295	1.098	1.077	1.082	1.088	1.093	1.093	1.100	1.160	1.271
2025	1.375	1.371	1.351	1.146	1.125	1.130	1.136	1.141	1.142	1.149	1.211	1.326
2026	1.424	1.419	1.399	1.188	1.167	1.172	1.178	1.183	1.184	1.191	1.255	1.373
2027	1.478	1.473	1.452	1.235	1.212	1.218	1.224	1.230	1.230	1.238	1.304	1.426
2028	1.529	1.524	1.503	1.279	1.256	1.261	1.268	1.273	1.274	1.282	1.350	1.475
2029	1.582	1.577	1.555	1.324	1.300	1.306	1.313	1.318	1.319	1.327	1.397	1.526
2030	1.638	1.633	1.610	1.372	1.348	1.354	1.360	1.366	1.367	1.375	1.447	1.581

Based on small boiler without emission controls

SoCalGas Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Commercial ($Nominal / Therm)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2006	1.055	0.810	0.757	0.864	0.862	0.865	0.870	0.878	0.884	0.877	0.964	1.040
2007	1.078	1.078	1.058	0.909	0.889	0.895	0.901	0.908	0.909	0.916	0.954	1.011
2008	1.057	1.056	1.036	0.866	0.846	0.851	0.857	0.862	0.863	0.868	0.898	0.955
2009	1.025	1.024	1.002	0.807	0.787	0.793	0.799	0.804	0.806	0.812	0.869	0.926
2010	0.994	0.990	0.971	0.783	0.764	0.768	0.773	0.778	0.779	0.785	0.843	0.899
2011	1.043	1.041	1.020	0.844	0.826	0.831	0.836	0.841	0.841	0.846	0.898	0.951
2012	0.999	0.995	0.979	0.810	0.793	0.797	0.802	0.806	0.806	0.812	0.863	0.958
2013	0.959	0.955	0.940	0.781	0.764	0.769	0.773	0.777	0.777	0.783	0.831	0.920
2014	0.920	0.916	0.902	0.752	0.737	0.741	0.745	0.749	0.749	0.754	0.800	0.884
2015	0.882	0.878	0.865	0.725	0.710	0.714	0.718	0.721	0.722	0.727	0.769	0.848
2016	0.906	0.903	0.889	0.746	0.732	0.735	0.739	0.743	0.743	0.748	0.791	0.871
2017	0.940	0.936	0.922	0.775	0.760	0.764	0.768	0.772	0.772	0.777	0.822	0.904
2018	1.001	0.997	0.982	0.826	0.810	0.814	0.819	0.823	0.823	0.828	0.876	0.963
2019	1.063	1.059	1.043	0.878	0.861	0.865	0.870	0.874	0.874	0.880	0.930	1.023
2020	1.097	1.093	1.077	0.908	0.891	0.895	0.900	0.904	0.905	0.911	0.962	1.056
2021	1.144	1.140	1.123	0.949	0.931	0.935	0.940	0.945	0.945	0.951	1.004	1.102
2022	1.200	1.196	1.179	0.997	0.978	0.983	0.988	0.993	0.993	0.999	1.054	1.156
2023	1.259	1.254	1.236	1.047	1.028	1.033	1.038	1.043	1.043	1.049	1.107	1.213
2024	1.312	1.307	1.289	1.093	1.072	1.077	1.083	1.088	1.088	1.095	1.155	1.265
2025	1.369	1.364	1.344	1.141	1.120	1.125	1.131	1.136	1.137	1.143	1.205	1.319
2026	1.417	1.413	1.392	1.183	1.162	1.167	1.173	1.178	1.179	1.186	1.249	1.367
2027	1.471	1.466	1.445	1.229	1.207	1.213	1.218	1.224	1.225	1.232	1.298	1.419
2028	1.522	1.517	1.496	1.273	1.250	1.256	1.262	1.268	1.268	1.276	1.343	1.468
2029	1.575	1.569	1.547	1.318	1.295	1.300	1.307	1.313	1.313	1.321	1.391	1.519
2030	1.631	1.625	1.602	1.366	1.342	1.348	1.354	1.360	1.361	1.369	1.441	1.573

Based on small boiler without emission controls

SDG&E Gas Avoided Commodity and Environmental Cost - Commercial ($Nominal / Therm)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2006	1.051	0.807	0.754	0.861	0.859	0.862	0.867	0.876	0.881	0.874	0.961	1.037
2007	1.075	1.075	1.055	0.906	0.886	0.892	0.898	0.905	0.906	0.913	0.951	1.008
2008	1.053	1.052	1.033	0.863	0.844	0.849	0.854	0.859	0.860	0.866	0.895	0.952
2009	1.022	1.021	0.999	0.805	0.784	0.791	0.796	0.801	0.803	0.809	0.866	0.923
2010	0.991	0.987	0.968	0.780	0.761	0.766	0.771	0.776	0.776	0.783	0.840	0.896
2011	1.040	1.038	1.017	0.841	0.823	0.828	0.833	0.838	0.838	0.843	0.896	0.948
2012	0.996	0.992	0.976	0.807	0.790	0.795	0.799	0.804	0.804	0.810	0.861	0.955
2013	0.956	0.952	0.937	0.778	0.762	0.766	0.771	0.775	0.775	0.780	0.829	0.918
2014	0.917	0.914	0.899	0.750	0.735	0.739	0.743	0.747	0.747	0.752	0.797	0.881
2015	0.879	0.876	0.862	0.723	0.708	0.712	0.716	0.719	0.720	0.724	0.767	0.845
2016	0.903	0.900	0.886	0.744	0.730	0.733	0.737	0.741	0.741	0.746	0.789	0.869
2017	0.937	0.934	0.920	0.773	0.758	0.762	0.766	0.770	0.770	0.775	0.820	0.902
2018	0.998	0.994	0.980	0.824	0.808	0.812	0.816	0.820	0.821	0.826	0.873	0.960
2019	1.060	1.056	1.040	0.875	0.859	0.863	0.867	0.872	0.872	0.878	0.928	1.020
2020	1.094	1.090	1.074	0.906	0.889	0.893	0.898	0.902	0.902	0.908	0.959	1.053
2021	1.141	1.137	1.120	0.946	0.928	0.933	0.938	0.942	0.943	0.948	1.001	1.099
2022	1.197	1.193	1.175	0.994	0.976	0.980	0.985	0.990	0.991	0.997	1.052	1.153
2023	1.255	1.251	1.233	1.044	1.025	1.030	1.035	1.040	1.040	1.047	1.104	1.210
2024	1.308	1.304	1.285	1.090	1.070	1.075	1.080	1.085	1.086	1.092	1.152	1.261
2025	1.365	1.360	1.341	1.138	1.117	1.122	1.128	1.133	1.134	1.140	1.202	1.316
2026	1.414	1.409	1.389	1.180	1.159	1.164	1.170	1.175	1.176	1.183	1.246	1.363
2027	1.467	1.462	1.442	1.226	1.204	1.209	1.215	1.221	1.222	1.229	1.294	1.415
2028	1.518	1.513	1.492	1.270	1.247	1.253	1.259	1.264	1.265	1.273	1.340	1.464
2029	1.570	1.565	1.543	1.315	1.291	1.297	1.303	1.309	1.310	1.318	1.387	1.515
2030	1.626	1.621	1.598	1.362	1.338	1.344	1.351	1.357	1.357	1.365	1.437	1.569

Based on small boiler without emission controls

(END OF ATTACHMENT 3)